Manufacturing economy
ISM manufacturing PMI was 54.5 in September 2026, a ninth month of growth
54.5. That's where the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI landed in September 2026, a reading above 50 that means US manufacturing activity expanded for the ninth month in a row.
The detail is more mixed than the headline. New orders accelerated to 55.3 and backlogs to 56.4, but production slowed to 56.7 and the prices index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9. Inventories were the one core index in contraction.
This page traces the headline and the subindexes to ISM's September report and explains how to read a diffusion index.
Data covers ISM Manufacturing PMI and its subindexes for September 2026 (ISM Report On Business, released October 1, 2026). Published 2026-10-16. Last reviewed 2026-10-16. Last updated 2026-10-16. Edited by Mike Ramsey / Reliable Media.
The figures and where they come from
Each figure is rated for how safely you can cite it today. Ratings judge current usability, not whether a number was ever correct.
| Figure | What it is | Source | Citation Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.5 | Manufacturing PMI, September 2026 | [A] | High | 0.1 point below August's 54.6. |
| Ninth in a row | Months of expansion | [A] | High | ISM says the expansion followed a 10-month period of contraction. |
| Manufacturing generally expanding | What a reading above 50 means | [A] | High | ISM describes its indexes as measures of the direction and scope of change, not its size. |
| 55.3 (+1.6) | New Orders Index | [A] | High | Up from 53.7 in August. |
| 56.7 (-1.6) | Production Index | [A] | High | Down from 58.3 in August. |
| 77.9 (+6.8) | Prices Index | [A] | High | Up from 71.1 in August. Above 50 means prices paid are rising. |
| 52.7 (+1.5) | Employment Index | [A] | High | Up from 51.2 in August. |
| 56.4 (+4.6) | Backlog of Orders Index | [A] | High | Up from 51.8 in August. |
| 48.6 (-2.0) | Inventories Index | [A] | High | The one core PMI subindex in contraction. |
| 12 | Industries reporting growth | [A] | High | Including machinery, computer and electronic products, and transportation equipment. |
| 34% | Negative comments citing tariffs | [A] | Medium | Share of negative respondent comments mentioning tariffs. Pricing volatility led at 46%. |
| Direction and scope of change | What ISM indexes measure | [A] | High | ISM's own description of its diffusion indexes. |
Why the numbers disagree
The PMI measures breadth, not size. ISM describes its indexes as summary measures of the prevailing direction and scope of change, so 54.5 says expansion is widespread without saying how fast output grew. For output itself, use the Federal Reserve's industrial production figures.
Two thresholds get mixed up. ISM says a Manufacturing PMI above 50 means manufacturing is generally expanding, and that above 47.5 over time generally indicates the overall economy is expanding. They answer different questions.
The prices index shows how widely respondents report paying more, which is different from an inflation rate. The jump to 77.9 says price increases are widespread, not how large they are.
How to cite these figures
Cite it as ISM Manufacturing PMI, September 2026: 54.5, the ninth consecutive month of expansion.
Quote subindexes with their August comparison, since the direction often matters more than the level: new orders 55.3, up from 53.7.
Pair the PMI with a hard-data source, such as Federal Reserve industrial production, when you need to say how much output actually changed.
Where people go wrong
Reading 54.5 as 4.5% growth. It's a diffusion index.
Calling the prices index an inflation rate.
Saying every index expanded. Inventories, at 48.6, contracted.
How we checked
All figures come from ISM's September 2026 Manufacturing PMI report, released October 1, 2026, as distributed by PR Newswire. ISM's own report page loads its text with scripts, so we cite the wire copy, which carries the full report.
The respondent-comment shares rate Medium because they summarize free-text survey comments rather than a structured measure.
Full source list
Primary sources, with live links. Every figure above traces to one of these.
- [A]Institute for Supply Management (ISM)October 1, 2026
ISM, "Manufacturing PMI at 54.5%; September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report" (via PR Newswire)
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-54-5-september-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302894520.html
Common questions
- What was the ISM manufacturing PMI in September 2026?
- 54.5, down 0.1 point from 54.6 in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management. It was the ninth consecutive month of expansion.
- What does a PMI above 50 mean?
- ISM says a Manufacturing PMI reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50, that it is generally declining.
- Are manufacturing prices rising?
- The ISM Prices Index rose 6.8 points to 77.9 in September 2026, meaning price increases were widespread among respondents.
- Did factory new orders grow in September 2026?
- Yes. The New Orders Index rose 1.6 points to 55.3.
More data, traced to source
- US factory output rose 0.3% in September 2026; utilization hit 75.9%
The Federal Reserve's G.17 release shows industrial production up 0.7% in September 2026 and manufacturing output up 0.3%. Semiconductor output drove a 3.8% annualized third-quarter gain in durables, and factory capacity utilization rose to 75.9%.
- US factories added 9,000 jobs in September 2026, up 72,000 since December
The BLS jobs report for September 2026 shows manufacturing employment little changed at +9,000, but up 72,000 from a low in December 2025. Machinery and plastics and rubber each added 5,000, and the factory workweek held at 40.6 hours.
- Robots multiplied. US factory output barely moved. What the numbers show
The world's operating robot fleet passed 4.6 million while US industrial production sits barely above its baseline and runs below capacity. Automation is not tracking output the way people assume.
- US manufacturers spent $314 billion on new capital
US manufacturers spent $314.3 billion on new capital in 2022, up 10.6%, most of it on equipment. The hard dollar anchor behind 'factories are investing in automation,' from the Census Bureau's 2023 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.